Survey says Americans view sports prediction markets as gambling

Summary

New polling commissioned by the coalition Gambling is Not Investing (GINI) and carried out by Morning Consult finds a strong public view that sports prediction markets are effectively sports betting in disguise. The survey of 15,029 US adults between 17 and 22 March reports that 81% of respondents consider trading on sporting outcomes via prediction markets to be betting.

The poll highlights concerns over platforms presenting event contracts, swaps or futures as financial instruments rather than gambling products, the availability of these services to 18-year-olds, and calls for them to follow state gaming regulations. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) currently treats such contracts as swaps under financial regulation, focusing on market-manipulation and AML enforcement rather than gambling rules.

Context and relevance

This comes as a newly formed coalition, GINI, pushes for regulatory parity between prediction markets and licensed sportsbooks, arguing that consumers — especially younger adults — are being misled. The debate sits at the intersection of financial regulation, consumer protection and the rapidly changing betting landscape, with legal and enforcement implications for both platforms and regulators.

Key Points

Survey of 15,029 US adults (17–22 March) found 81% view prediction-market trading on sports outcomes as betting.
77% of respondents worry that allowing 18-year-olds to use prediction markets could increase gambling-related harm among young adults.
73% said labelling bets as contracts, swaps or futures makes the risks harder for users — especially younger ones — to understand.
GINI, formed in March, argues prediction markets are skirting gambling rules and should follow state gaming regulations including age limits, taxes and responsible-gambling safeguards.
The CFTC maintains prediction-market contracts fall under financial regulation as swaps and focuses on anti-market-manipulation and AML enforcement, not gambling rules.
GINI’s membership includes organisations opposed to gambling expansion for various reasons; founder Mick Mulvaney calls for regulatory parity rather than a ban on gambling per se.

Why should I read this?

Short version: if you care about regulation, consumer protection or the future of sports betting, this matters. The poll shows overwhelming public scepticism that prediction markets are anything other than betting — and that public pressure could push states and regulators to clamp down. Read on to get the facts without wading through the spin.